It’s unfortunate that my only 2 blog readers are female… because today I need to blog about something distinctly male. The NFL.
Every year at least one team has a spectacular regular season (this year it’s at least the Colts and the Saints… I should probably include the Vikings, too). And every year said team(s) gets cautious at the end and starts playing not to lose instead of playing to win.
Now, they do this for an ostensibly good reason… to protect their players from potential injury while preparing for the playoffs.
But here’s the deal… in the process they invariably anger the football gods.
Now I don’t really believe in football gods (I’m not superstitious… just a little stitious). But I do believe that it’s harder to turn on and off winning attitudes and culture than most football X and O guys think. Or else they wouldn’t insist on killing their SuperBowl chances each year by willingly giving up a winning attitude and culture.
It sends the wrong message to players, fans, and opponents. And it will inevitably come back to haunt those teams that do it.
Because human beings aren’t wired that way. And even though football players (and presumably coaches) are taught that it’s the hard, physical skills that matter… it’s the “soft” psychological and emotional edges that give the championship advantage.
And that’s why playing not to lose at the end of the regular season is a loser attitude and instantly identifies those organizations that don’t have the soft skills to win this year. (I believe it’s why the Colts have only 1 SuperBowl win in a decade of dominance. It’s an organizational attitude that places talent over emotion and momentum. And that equals regular season wins and predictable postseason “flops.”)
So I make a few predictions… based entirely off of the emotional momentum and playoff “mojo” of each team as I see it. Because I believe in a league of parity (unlike, say, baseball) that energy has far more to do with playoff success than pure talent.
My 2009/2010 Mojo Picks…
Neither of the 2 best teams this year will win the SuperBowl. Indy and New Orleans are done. (Although Peyton Manning scares the bejeebers out of me and could single-handedly prove me wrong. But I doubt it).
And the inverse corollary also holds true… those teams that were forced to maintain the competitive instinct to the end because they were battling for their playoff lives will carry over an emotional advantage that won’t easily be overcome by superior (talent-wise) teams suddenly trying to turn it back on for the playoffs. This is especially true in the AFC where final playoff teams weren’t decided until the last game.
So even though on paper Baltimore and the Jets shouldn’t beat New England and the Bengals… they will. (Although New England played to win every game, because I don’t think Bill Belichick knows any other way. In this case I think it’s just been too long since the Pats played a meaningful game. But they’re a team that could certainly win next week and make a long run.)
The NFC is a little tougher.
I think the Cards and Eagles win next week (even though Dallas is technically the hotter team… no way Wade Phillips converts that to a W. Philly rolls Dallas in the intangibles game). And at least one of them will then take down one of the NFC favorites the following week. The other NFC favorite will lose in the conference championship (if they even make it that far).
That means the NFC SuperBowl team will be either the Cardinals or the Eagles. I say Eagles. But that may or may not be a pick solely for the reverse jinx effect I’m trying to muster.
In the AFC I pick the Jets and Ravens in round 1 (although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats win… Coach Belichick gets this more than any other coach in the league).
The Jets will lose in the next round because they just don’t have the talent to hang with anyone else. That is my sole talent pick heading into the playoffs… the Jets go down on talent, not energy and emotion.
At some point the Chargers will lose because they don’t have enough of the energy at their core (and it starts with coach Norv Turner… he’s the AFC equivalent of Wade Phillips in Dallas). I just don’t know if it will be in round 2 or 3 (because they could face the Jets).
New England, Baltimore and Indy could all make a SuperBowl run. They all have “it.” And since I’ve already taken down the Colts and Pats, I’m going to go with Baltimore as the AFC SuperBowl team… although picking Joe Flacco over Tom Brady and (especially) Peyton Manning doesn’t even make sense to me.
I might change that pick depending on how they show up energetically for round 1. But I’ll think I’ll look pretty good next week.
So that’s my all-mojo NFL prediction post. The teams that play in the SuperBowl will be there on mojo… not talent. And the teams going home before then have already sealed their fate by tempting the football gods late in the season. And they must be punished for it.
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